On Episode 35, I told you something that should’ve made you a little uncomfortable: once a brand claims a category in AI search, it holds onto it 90% of the time.
Today I want to show you the other half of that data. Because it changes what you do this quarter — not just how you think about the problem.
Right now, most of the categories worth having are sitting empty.
Hi, I’m Jeff Payne. You’re listening to The Jeff Payne Show, Episode #40: 89% Vacancy.
Quick context, if you missed the last episode. SEMrush and analyst Kevin Indig analyzed over 1,000 categories in ChatGPT — topics like “best CRM for small business” or “how to choose a 1031 exchange advisor.” For each one, they tracked five representative prompts and measured which brand ChatGPT most often names.
When one brand wins the clear majority of those prompts and holds a real lead over whoever’s in second — that’s a category owner. And we already know owners are hard to dethrone.
So the real question isn’t “can you win a category.” It’s “how many categories out there actually have a winner yet.” And the answer surprised me.
15%. One category in seven has a clear owner. The other 54% are wide open — no brand has a repeatable lead. Nobody has claimed it.
Now here’s the part that should get your attention if you’re running a company with real ambition. Split those categories by how much actual AI search volume they carry — and the pattern flips on you.
The largest categories — those carrying 98% of all demand in this dataset — have the lowest ownership rate across the whole study. 11%. Compare that to 19% ownership in the small, low-volume categories nobody’s fighting over.
The categories nobody wants already have an owner. The categories everybody wants are still up for grabs. Add it up, and 89% of all AI search demand in this study sits in categories where nobody has locked in the lead.
And it’s not evenly distributed. In retail, 62 out of every 100 categories already have a clear owner — that’s a mature, contested field. In legal, across 100 categories analyzed, none had a clear owner. Not one.
Same platform. Same methodology. Completely different competitive reality depending on what business you’re in.
So the first question isn’t “how much content should we publish.” It’s “where does our industry actually sit on that spectrum — and which of our categories still has the door open.”
Here’s where the two pieces of data connect. We already know that once someone claims a category, they keep it 9 times out of 10. Now we know most of the valuable ground hasn’t been claimed. Put those together, and you get a shrinking window — not an open-ended opportunity.
I’m not telling you to publish more. Broad content spread thin across every adjacent topic is exactly what fails to build ownership — the data’s clear on that, too.
I’m telling you to pick. Sit down with your team this week and ask one question: of the handful of categories that actually drive our revenue, which ones still have no owner — and are we even trying to be the answer there?
According to this data, category ownership in AI search is 89% vacant. That number will not hold.
The brands that move while it’s open get to be the ones with a 90% retention rate 12 months from now. The ones that wait get to read about it.
Thanks for listening. Visit my show notes for more in-depth analysis and charts at jeffpayne.net, Episode #40. I look forward to seeing you next time.
On Episode 35, I told you something that should have made you a little uncomfortable: once a brand claims a category in AI search, it tends to hold onto it. New data from SEMrush and analyst Kevin Indig at Growth Memo puts the month-over-month retention rate at 90.4%.
Today’s the other half of that story. And it changes what you do this quarter, not just how you think about the problem.
Right now, most of the categories worth having are sitting empty.
How Ownership Actually Gets Measured
The study behind both episodes tracked more than 1,000 categories in ChatGPT — the kinds of topics a buyer actually prompts about, like “best CRM for small business” or “how to choose a 1031 exchange advisor.” For each category, researchers tracked five representative prompts and measured which brand ChatGPT names most often across them.
A brand becomes a “category owner” when it wins a clear majority of those prompts and holds a real lead over whoever’s in second place. We already know from Episode 35 that owners are hard to dethrone. The open question is how many categories actually have one.
15% have an owner. The rest are wide-open.
Just 15.2% of the categories in this study have a clear owner. Another 31.2% have an emerging leader without a settled position. The remaining 53.7% — the majority — are open fields where no brand has built a repeatable lead.
That alone is notable. But split those categories by how much actual AI search volume they carry, and the pattern reverses in a way that matters more.
| Segment | Owner Rate | Share of AI Search Demand |
|---|---|---|
| Bottom half by AI volume | 19% | 2.0% |
| Top half by AI volume | 11.3% | 98.0% |
The largest categories — those accounting for 98% of all demand in the dataset — have the lowest ownership rates in the entire study. The small, low-volume categories nobody’s fighting over are more likely to have a winner already. Stack it up, and 89.3% of all AI search demand in this study sits in categories with no clear owner yet.
The categories nobody wants already have an owner. The categories everybody wants are still up for grabs.
Ownership Depends Heavily On Your Industry
This isn’t evenly distributed across sectors. In retail, 61.6% of categories analyzed already have a clear owner — a mature, contested field. In legal, across 100 categories, zero had a clear owner. Same platform, same methodology, a completely different competitive reality depending on what business you’re in.
So the first question isn’t how much content to publish. It’s where your industry actually sits on that spectrum, and which of your categories still has the door open.
The Move
Here’s where the two pieces of data connect. Owners keep their categories roughly 90% of the time. Most of the valuable ground — the categories that actually carry demand — hasn’t been claimed. Put those together, and you get a shrinking window, not an open-ended opportunity.
This isn’t a case for publishing more. Broad content spread thin across every adjacent topic is exactly what fails to build ownership. It’s a case for choosing. Sit down with your team this week and ask one question: of the handful of categories that actually drive your revenue, which ones still have no, ner — and are you even trying to be the answer there?
Category ownership in AI search is currently 89% vacant.
That number will not hold.
The brands that move while it’s open are the ones holding a 90% retention rate 12 months from now. The ones that wait get to read about it.
Source: Kevin Indig, Growth Memo — “Does Topical Authority Matter in AI Search?” — analysis via the SEMrush AI Visibility Toolkit.
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